Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Dividend Share Analysis

Follow by Strategy 1, I compiled an Excel to analyse the historical dividend and the average, calculate the "reasonable price (5% yield)", "cheap price (6% yield)" and my magic number of 5.5% yield.

Why 5.5%? The original theory came from Taiwan and maybe not suitable for Singapore STI. Some good companies like CapitalMall, FCT, AREIT may never reach 6% buying price unless market collapse.

Don't put all your money when 5.5% yield. You can divide your money into 3 portion: buy 1 portion when 5.5% yield. If price drop another 5%, buy another portion (price drop 5% further, dividend yield should increase about 0.3%). Lastly if price drop another 5%.

What if the price doesn't drop after you buy? Just wait for another opportunity. If you really hate money in your pocket, I don't mind you donate to me...:)

Dividend Share Analysis

You may notice I have included "NAV" (Net Asset Value) here. NAV is so called "karung guni"/"Lelong" price. This is the money that share holders can get if the company "bankrupt". So, you can assume this is the cheapest price a company worth. I think for "REIT", share price 10%-20% higher than NAV is reasonable, <10 data-blogger-escaped-cheap="" data-blogger-escaped-is="">20% is expensive. I don't know what happen to "First REIT" and "PLife", they are 50% more than NAV. 

NAV concept doesn't apply for Singpost, Singtel, ComfortDelGro etc as they are not asset rich companies. 

You can download the excel from:


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